Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator Application to Heat Waves: Ko’olauloa Community Resilience Hub

Abstract

Heat waves are increasing in severity, duration, and frequency. The multi-scenario extreme weather simulator (MEWS) models this using historical data, climate model outputs, and heat wave multipliers. In this study, MEWS is applied for planning of a community resilience hub in Hau’ula, Hawaii. The hub will have normal operations and resilience operations modes. Both these modes were modelled using EnergyPlus. The resilience operations mode includes cutting off air-conditioning for many spaces to decrease power requirements during emergencies. Results were simulated for 300 future weather files generated by MEWS for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080. Shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 were used. The resilience operations mode results show two to six times increase of hours of exceedance beyond 32.2 °C from present conditions depending on climate scenario and future year. The resulting decrease in thermal resilience enables an average decrease of energy use intensity of 26% with little sensitivity to climate change. The decreased thermal resilience predicted in the future is undesirable, but was not severe enough to require a more energy intensive resilience mode. Instead, planning is needed to assure vulnerable individuals are given prioritized access to conditioned parts of the hub if worst case heat waves occur.