Assessing Property Exposure to Cyclonic Winds under Climate Change

Abstract

Properties in the United States face increasing exposure to tropical storm-level winds due to climate change. Driving this increasing risk are severe hurricanes that are more likely to occur when hurricanes form in the future and the northward shift of Atlantic-formed hurricanes, increasing the estimated exposure of buildings and infrastructure to damaging winds. The wind model presented here combines open data and science by utilizing high-resolution topography, computer-modeled hurricane tracks, and property data to create hyper-local tropical cyclone wind exposure information for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from current time to 2053 under RCP 4.5. This allows for a detailed evaluation of probable wind speeds by several return periods, probabilities of cyclonic thresholds being reached or surpassed, and a comparison of this cyclone-level wind exposure between the current year and 30 years into the future under climatic changes. The results of this research reveal extensive exposure along the Gulf and Southeastern Atlantic Coasts, with significant growing exposure in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern regions of the country.