Competing for Deal Flow in Local Mortgage Markets

Abstract

Abstract The U.S. mortgage market exhibits competitive instability in which some lenders rapidly emerge from the fringe to substantial market shares. Using inferred discontinuities in application acceptance models to generate local lending shocks, we analyze the impact on a lender of a surge in originations by its competitors. We show that the quickest-growing (but not the largest) competitors divert applications and originations from other lenders. Facing a quickly growing competitor, lenders charge higher interest rates, partially because of the increased risk of their loans. Loan performance suffers for other lenders as the quickest-growing competitor’s originations increase. (JEL G21, D40) Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.