Improving the SIR Model: Isolation and Containment Strategies for COVID-19 - A Case Study of Ain-Touta City

Abstract

In the endeavor to halt the transmission of infectious diseases, containment and isolation emerge as pivotal preventive strategies. The elucidation of disease spread dynamics, through the lens of mathematical models, is instrumental in forecasting epidemiological trajectories. This study presents an augmented Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, assimilating these preventive measures, to scrutinize the propagation of COVID-19 since its initial emergence. The combat against this pandemic has predominantly hinged upon non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including, but not limited to, mask utilization, physical distancing, patient isolation, contact quarantine, and hand hygiene. The focal point of our investigation lies in the examination of the influence of susceptible population containment and infected individual isolation on the evolution of the ongoing outbreak. The basic reproductive number, an indicator of contagiousness, is analyzed over the course of the outbreak, yielding promising outcomes.