Neighbourhood Effect as a Significant Factor at the Latvian Parliamentary Elections in 2010-2022

Abstract

The article tackles the issue of the neighbourhood effect in the Latvian Saeima elections in 2010–2022. Although the ethnolinguistic cleavage remains the main voting factor, currently the Latvian electoral system is transforming due to the fragmentation of the Russian-speaking electoral landscape. As a result, it is increasingly important to take into account other voting factors including the neighbourhood effect. To prove its importance in the electoral system the regression analysis is used: the classical model is compared with the spatial lag model when the average support of the party in neighbouring regions is added to the list of independent variables. In all the cases with an acceptable probability value accounting for the spatial lag has increased the explanatory power and the quality of the regression models. The strongest neighbourhood effect has been identified for the Progressive party in 2022, the Development/For! In 2018 and the Greens and Farmers Union in 2011. The neighbourhood effect has also influenced the voting for the so-called Russian parties including the Harmony, the Larvian Russian Union and the Stability, however it has not explained more than a few percent of the dispersion of their support, with the etholinguistic structure of electorate being of paramount importance in these cases.