Investigation of cointegration and causal linkages on Bitcoin volatility during COVID-19 pandemic

Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Global Business and Economics Review Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1504/gber.2023.128844
N.A. Tiffani, Ingrid Claudia Calvilus, Shinta Amalina Hazrati Havidz
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

In this study, we focus on a prominent feature in Bitcoin: its volatility. This paper aims to examine the volatility action of Bitcoin's price during the COVID-19 pandemic through various angles: COVID-19 fear sentiments, investor fear sentiments, macro-financial factors, and crypto market factors. The study utilises daily data from 11 March 2020 to 31 May 2021. We implemented an ARDL bound testing approach to find cointegration, and the Toda-Yamamoto approach to further examine any existing causal relationships between the variables. The empirical results show that COVID-19 fear increased Bitcoin volatility and a unidirectional causal relation was found between them. Investor fear sentiments revealed that US dollar volatility moved in the same direction as Bitcoin volatility, while VIX was found to be insignificant. Gold, crude oil, and the stock market did not influence the volatility of Bitcoin. Overall, only crypto market factors were cointegrated with Bitcoin volatility in the long run.
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COVID-19大流行期间比特币波动的协整和因果关系研究
在这项研究中,我们关注比特币的一个突出特征:波动性。本文旨在从COVID-19恐惧情绪、投资者恐惧情绪、宏观金融因素和加密市场因素等多个角度考察比特币价格在COVID-19大流行期间的波动行为。该研究利用了2020年3月11日至2021年5月31日的每日数据。我们实施了ARDL绑定检验方法来寻找协整,并采用Toda-Yamamoto方法来进一步检查变量之间存在的因果关系。实证结果表明,COVID-19恐惧增加了比特币的波动性,两者之间存在单向因果关系。投资者的恐惧情绪显示,美元波动与比特币波动的方向相同,而VIX指数被发现微不足道。黄金、原油和股票市场并没有影响比特币的波动性。总的来说,从长远来看,只有加密市场因素与比特币的波动性是协整的。
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来源期刊
Global Business and Economics Review
Global Business and Economics Review Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
81
期刊介绍: GBER (the flagship journal of the Business & Economics Society International) is an international refereed outlet journal for the presentation, discussion and analysis of advanced concepts, initial treatments and fundamental research in all fields of business and economics. Priority is given to insightful policy-oriented articles that deal with the implications of the increasingly global business activity, especially written for the educated lay-person.
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