Analyzing the Temporal Variation in Macroseismic Intensity Rating Values and Predicting Macroseismic Intensity on the Tibetan Plateau

IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI:10.1785/0120230102
Zhenbiao Liu, Yanxiang Yu, Liang Xiao
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Abstract

ABSTRACT China has relatively rich macroseismic isoseismal maps, which play an important role in seismic hazard analysis and the development of reliable earthquake loss models. The macroseismic intensity is assessed based on the Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale, which is constantly being revised as research progresses and the seismic defense capability is enhanced. To investigate whether intensity rating values show consistency across time in statistical significance, this study collected 543 isoseismal lines for 216 earthquakes on the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2020. Taking intensity prediction equations (IPEs) as a reference, statistical tests of the residuals indicate that there is temporal variation in intensity rating values, which is inconsistent with the default assumption that intensity rating values are consistent for different time periods when developing IPEs. Therefore, we analyze the characteristics of intensity rating values by statistical tests and investigate the mechanism by which the temporal variation in intensity rating values affects IPEs by residual decomposition. The results show that despite the temporal variation in intensity rating values, they can still be used to develop IPEs, and that temporal variability can be reduced by adjustment. Finally, we obtain the regression process of IPEs based on the partially nonergodic assumption considering the temporal variation in intensity rating values, and perform a case study, using the Tibetan Plateau as an example.
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青藏高原大地震烈度分级值的时间变化分析与大地震烈度预测
中国具有较为丰富的大地震等震图,在地震危险性分析和建立可靠的地震损失模型中发挥着重要作用。大震烈度评定依据的是中国地震烈度分级表,随着研究的深入和防震能力的提高,该分级表不断进行修订。为了研究强度等级值是否在统计意义上具有一致性,本研究收集了1960 - 2020年青藏高原216次地震的543条等震线。以强度预测方程(IPEs)为参考,残差统计检验表明,强度等级值存在时间变化,这与IPEs开发时不同时间段强度等级值一致的默认假设不一致。因此,我们通过统计检验分析强度额定值的特征,并通过残差分解研究强度额定值的时间变化对IPEs的影响机制。结果表明,尽管强度等级值存在时间差异,但它们仍然可以用于开发IPEs,并且可以通过调整来减小时间变异。最后,基于考虑强度等级值时间变化的部分非遍历假设,给出了IPEs的回归过程,并以青藏高原为例进行了实例分析。
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来源期刊
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
13.30%
发文量
140
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, commonly referred to as BSSA, (ISSN 0037-1106) is the premier journal of advanced research in earthquake seismology and related disciplines. It first appeared in 1911 and became a bimonthly in 1963. Each issue is composed of scientific papers on the various aspects of seismology, including investigation of specific earthquakes, theoretical and observational studies of seismic waves, inverse methods for determining the structure of the Earth or the dynamics of the earthquake source, seismometry, earthquake hazard and risk estimation, seismotectonics, and earthquake engineering. Special issues focus on important earthquakes or rapidly changing topics in seismology. BSSA is published by the Seismological Society of America.
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