On contingency, confidence and trust: how international water law stabilizes expectations under conditions of uncertainty

Abstract

How is international water law able to stabilize expectations amid uncertain conditions? We use modern systems theory to hypothesize using the Lancang–Mekong River context. We propose: Hypothesis 1: Equitable utilization norms incorporate variant possibilities to solve the problem of contingency; Hypothesis 2: No significant harm norms select expectations worth protecting to solve the problem of confidence; Hypothesis 3: Cooperation norms retain learning opportunities to solve the problem of trust. Our aim is not to test correspondence with reality, but to stimulate understanding of international water law. Specifically, we evaluate how system problems of contingency, confidence and trust shape laws’ function.