Research on Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism of China's Bond Market: Empirical Analysis Based on Granger Causality Complex Network

Abstract

The bond market is an important market for investment and financing in China's economic sectors, and also an important part of the monetary policy framework. The internal transmission of bond market is an important part of market interest rate transmission, which iscritical to the effectiveness of monetary policy. However, few scholars have studied the characteristics of interest rate transmission in China. An in-depth study of the interest rate transmission mechanism and its dynamic evolution between different bond markets is conducive to clarify the pulse of transmission within Chinese bond market and to further unblock the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. From the perspective of system theory and based on the analysis method of Granger causality complex network, this paper finds that the interest rate transmission among various varieties in China's bond market is relatively significant. Treasury bonds and CDB bonds are the two core bond varieties of interest rate transmission in the bond market. Simultaneously, this study concludes that the medium and long-term interest rate played a dominant role in the transmission of market interest rate during the easing phase of monetary policy, while the short-term interest rate played a dominant role in the transmission of market interest rate during the tightening phase of monetary policy. This paper also gives enlightenment and suggestions.