The dynamic effect of public debt on economic growth in the era of Macroprudential policy regime: a Bayesian approach

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to test the dynamic impact of public debt and economic growth on newly democratized African countries (South Africa and Namibia) and compare the findings with those of newly democratized European countries (Germany and Ukraine) during the period 1990–2022. Design/methodology/approach The methodology involves three stages: identifying the appropriate transition variable, assessing the linearity between public debt and economic growth and selecting the order m of the transition function. The linearity test helps identify the nature of relationships between public debt and economic growth. The wild cluster bootstrap-Lagrange Multiplier test is used to evaluate the model’s appropriateness. All these tests would be executed using the Lagrange Multiplier type of test. Findings The results signify the policy switch, as the authors find that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is characterized by two transitions that symbolize that the current stage of the relationship is beyond the U-shape; however, an S-shape. The results show that for newly democratized African countries, the threshold during the first waves was 50% of GDP, represented by a U-shape, which then transits to an inverted U-shape with a threshold of 65% of GDP. Then, for the European case, it was 60% of GDP, which is now 72% of GDP. Originality/value The findings suggest that an escalating level of public debt has a negative impact on economic growth; therefore, it is important to implement fiscal discipline, prioritize government spending and reduce reliance on debt financing. This can be achieved by focusing on revenue generation, implementing effective taxation policies, reducing wasteful expenditures and promoting investment and productivity-enhancing measures.