{"title":"The impact of dependencies between climate risks on the asset and liability side of non-life insurers","authors":"Nadine Gatzert, Onur Özdil","doi":"10.1007/s13385-023-00364-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of dependencies between climate transition and physical risks on the default probability and profitability of a non-life insurer focusing on the scenario of a delayed and sudden transition. Toward this end, we suggest a simplified modeling approach for scenario analyses for climate risks affecting assets and liabilities, taking into account potential nonlinear dependence structures. Our results show that dependencies on the liability side and between assets and liabilities in the context of physical-transition scenarios can have a significant impact, particularly on the default risk of a non-life insurer. We additionally analyze the mitigating effects of stop loss reinsurance and risk-adjusted pricing, which—if implementable—seem to be an effective risk management measure against physical climate risks in particular.","PeriodicalId":44305,"journal":{"name":"European Actuarial Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Actuarial Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13385-023-00364-2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Abstract The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of dependencies between climate transition and physical risks on the default probability and profitability of a non-life insurer focusing on the scenario of a delayed and sudden transition. Toward this end, we suggest a simplified modeling approach for scenario analyses for climate risks affecting assets and liabilities, taking into account potential nonlinear dependence structures. Our results show that dependencies on the liability side and between assets and liabilities in the context of physical-transition scenarios can have a significant impact, particularly on the default risk of a non-life insurer. We additionally analyze the mitigating effects of stop loss reinsurance and risk-adjusted pricing, which—if implementable—seem to be an effective risk management measure against physical climate risks in particular.
期刊介绍：
Actuarial science and actuarial finance deal with the study, modeling and managing of insurance and related financial risks for which stochastic models and statistical methods are available. Topics include classical actuarial mathematics such as life and non-life insurance, pension funds, reinsurance, and also more recent areas of interest such as risk management, asset-and-liability management, solvency, catastrophe modeling, systematic changes in risk parameters, longevity, etc. EAJ is designed for the promotion and development of actuarial science and actuarial finance. For this, we publish original actuarial research papers, either theoretical or applied, with innovative applications, as well as case studies on the evaluation and implementation of new mathematical methods in insurance and actuarial finance. We also welcome survey papers on topics of recent interest in the field. EAJ is the successor of six national actuarial journals, and particularly focuses on links between actuarial theory and practice. In order to serve as a platform for this exchange, we also welcome discussions (typically from practitioners, with a length of 1-3 pages) on published papers that highlight the application aspects of the discussed paper. Such discussions can also suggest modifications of the studied problem which are of particular interest to actuarial practice. Thus, they can serve as motivation for further studies.Finally, EAJ now also publishes ‘Letters’, which are short papers (up to 5 pages) that have academic and/or practical relevance and consist of e.g. an interesting idea, insight, clarification or observation of a cross-connection that deserves publication, but is shorter than a usual research article. A detailed description or proposition of a new relevant research question, short but curious mathematical results that deserve the attention of the actuarial community as well as novel applications of mathematical and actuarial concepts are equally welcome. Letter submissions will be reviewed within 6 weeks, so that they provide an opportunity to get good and pertinent ideas published quickly, while the same refereeing standards as for other submissions apply. Both academics and practitioners are encouraged to contribute to this new format. Authors are invited to submit their papers online via http://euaj.edmgr.com.
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