Spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall and temperature variability and trends for climate resilient maize farming system in major agroecology zones of northwest Ethiopia

IF 3.3 2区农林科学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability Pub Date : 2023-10-04 DOI:10.1080/14735903.2023.2255450

Abebe Zeleke, Kindie Tesfaye, Tilahun Tadesse, Teferi Alem, Dereje Ademe, Enyew Adgo

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Abstract

Spatiotemporal studies of the annual and seasonal climate variability and trend on an agroecological spatial scale for establishing a climate-resilient maize farming system have not yet been conducted in Ethiopia. The study was carried out in three major agroecological zones in northwest Ethiopia using climate data from 1987 to 2018. The coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concertation index (PCI), and rainfall anomaly index (RAI) were used to analyze the variability of rainfall. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were also applied to estimate trends and slopes of changes in rainfall and temperature. High-significance warming trends in the maximum and minimum temperatures were shown in the highland and lowland agroecology zones, respectively. Rainfall has also demonstrated a maximum declining trend throughout the keremt season in the highland agroecology zone. However, rainfall distribution has become more unpredictable in the Bega and Belg seasons. Climate-resilient maize agronomic activities have been determined by analyzing the onset and cessation dates and the length of the growth period (LGP). The rainy season begins between May 8 and June 3 and finishes between October 26 and November 16. The length of the growth period (LGP) during the rainy season ranges from 94 to 229 days.

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埃塞俄比亚西北部主要农业生态区气候适应型玉米耕作系统降雨和温度时空变化及趋势分析

埃塞俄比亚尚未开展用于建立气候适应型玉米耕作系统的农业生态空间尺度上的年度和季节气候变率和趋势的时空研究。该研究在埃塞俄比亚西北部的三个主要农业生态区进行，使用了1987年至2018年的气候数据。利用变异系数(CV)、降水集中指数(PCI)和降雨异常指数(RAI)分析了降水的变异性。Mann-Kendall检验和Sen的斜率估计也被用于估计降雨和温度变化的趋势和斜率。高原和低地农业生态区最高气温和最低气温分别呈现显著增温趋势。高原农业生态区降雨在整个雨季也表现出最大的下降趋势。然而，在Bega和Belg季节，降雨分布变得更加不可预测。通过分析玉米生育期(LGP)的开始和结束日期，确定了气候适应型玉米的农艺活动。雨季从5月8日至6月3日开始，10月26日至11月16日结束。雨季的生长期(LGP)为94 ~ 229天。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-GREEN & SUSTAINABLE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

23.50%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability ( IJAS) is a cross-disciplinary, peer-reviewed journal dedicated to advancing the understanding of sustainability in agricultural and food systems. IJAS publishes both theoretical developments and critical appraisals of new evidence on what is not sustainable about current or past agricultural and food systems, as well as on transitions towards agricultural and rural sustainability at farm, community, regional, national and international levels, and through food supply chains. It is committed to clear and consistent use of language and logic, and the use of appropriate evidence to substantiate empirical statements. IJAS increases knowledge on what technologies and processes are contributing to agricultural sustainability, what policies, institutions and economic structures are preventing or promoting sustainability, and what relevant lessons should be learned.