The Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle 1985–2018: Mean, Seasonal Cycle, Trends, and Storage

Abstract

We assess the Southern Ocean CO₂ uptake (1985–2018) using data sets gathered in the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project Phase 2. The Southern Ocean acted as a sink for CO₂ with close agreement between simulation results from global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs, 0.75 ± 0.28 PgC yr⁻¹) and pCO₂-observation-based products (0.73 ± 0.07 PgC yr⁻¹). This sink is only half that reported by RECCAP1 for the same region and timeframe. The present-day net uptake is to first order a response to rising atmospheric CO₂, driving large amounts of anthropogenic CO₂ (C_ant) into the ocean, thereby overcompensating the loss of natural CO₂ to the atmosphere. An apparent knowledge gap is the increase of the sink since 2000, with pCO₂-products suggesting a growth that is more than twice as strong and uncertain as that of GOBMs (0.26 ± 0.06 and 0.11 ± 0.03 Pg C yr⁻¹ decade⁻¹, respectively). This is despite nearly identical pCO₂ trends in GOBMs and pCO₂-products when both products are compared only at the locations where pCO₂ was measured. Seasonal analyses revealed agreement in driving processes in winter with uncertainty in the magnitude of outgassing, whereas discrepancies are more fundamental in summer, when GOBMs exhibit difficulties in simulating the effects of the non-thermal processes of biology and mixing/circulation. Ocean interior accumulation of C_ant points to an underestimate of C_ant uptake and storage in GOBMs. Future work needs to link surface fluxes and interior ocean transport, build long overdue systematic observation networks and push toward better process understanding of drivers of the carbon cycle.