{"title":"Predicting the potential ecological niche distribution of Slovenian forests under climate change using MaxEnt modelling","authors":"Tim Gregorčič, Andrej Rozman, Blaž Repe","doi":"10.3986/ags.11561","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the article is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on Slovenian forests in the period 2080–2100 based on two climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic) using the MaxEnt software. Slovenian forests are divided at the ecological community level into thirteen forest vegetation types. Analyses of changes in ecological niche areas, distances of vectors between centroids of present areas and future ecological niches, and general spatial changes are carried out. In addition, changes in the altitudinal zones of forest vegetation types were investigated. The results indicate significant changes for Thermophilous beech forests and Thermophilous hop-hornbeam, sessile oak, downy oak, Scots pine and black pine forests. The potential changes in the altitudinal zones of forest vegetation types indicate a clear trend of forest vegetation types moving to higher altitudinal zones.","PeriodicalId":50938,"journal":{"name":"Acta Geographica Slovenica-Geografski Zbornik","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Acta Geographica Slovenica-Geografski Zbornik","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3986/ags.11561","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The aim of the article is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on Slovenian forests in the period 2080–2100 based on two climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic) using the MaxEnt software. Slovenian forests are divided at the ecological community level into thirteen forest vegetation types. Analyses of changes in ecological niche areas, distances of vectors between centroids of present areas and future ecological niches, and general spatial changes are carried out. In addition, changes in the altitudinal zones of forest vegetation types were investigated. The results indicate significant changes for Thermophilous beech forests and Thermophilous hop-hornbeam, sessile oak, downy oak, Scots pine and black pine forests. The potential changes in the altitudinal zones of forest vegetation types indicate a clear trend of forest vegetation types moving to higher altitudinal zones.
期刊介绍：
Acta geographica Slovenica publishes original research papers from all fields of geography and related disciplines, and provides a forum for discussing new aspects of theory, methods, issues, and research findings, especially in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe.
The review accepts original research papers and review papers. Papers presenting new developments and innovative methods in geography are welcome. Submissions should address current research gaps and explore state-of-the-art issues. Research based on case studies should have the added value of transnational comparison and should be integrated into established or new theoretical and conceptual frameworks.
The target readership is researchers, policymakers, students, and others who are studying or applying geography at various levels.
Submissions are accepted in English or Slovenian.
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