Bayesian Stackelberg game approach for cyber mission impact assessment

Abstract

Cyber threats increasingly target mission-critical systems in the military and private sectors. CMIA has emerged to mitigate such cyber threats and assure the resilience of critical missions. Existing approaches merely provide partial, manual analysis methods to support CMIA and lack the ability to provide optimal defense measures. In this paper, we propose a novel CMIA framework enabling a streamlined, automated CMIA procedure, based on the Bayesian Stackelburg game. Unlike conventional approaches, our framework provides the most probable cyber threat and the optimal defense, i.e., countermeasures against the cyber threat in a given mission environment, securing the resilience of mission-critical systems.