The Impact of Foundational AI on International Trade, Services and Supply Chains in Asia

IF 4.5 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Asian Economic Policy Review Pub Date : 2023-11-05 DOI:10.1111/aepr.12451

Joshua P. Meltzer

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Abstract

Foundational artificial intelligence (AI) is a general purpose technology that will affect economic activity across industries, with potentially significant impacts on jobs and international trade. This could include automation of routine and nonroutine white-collar jobs, which reduces international trade where these jobs are on-shored. However, where AI compliments existing jobs and leads to higher productivity, this could open up new opportunities for international trade in services. How foundational AI affects international trade will also depend on how it is regulated. Governments are moving to regulate AI, which could become a barrier to international trade. Geopolitics could also undermine opportunities for AI to deepen globalization and trade in AI as the USA and China restrict trade in the technology needed to build and run foundational AI systems. Regulating the impact of AI on international trade is an increasing focus in free trade agreements (FTAs) and digital economy agreements (DEAs). The World Trade Organization (WTO) Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) e-commerce negotiations could also support trade in AI. Yet, there is much more that trade policy could do to minimize barriers to trade in AI.

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基础人工智能对亚洲国际贸易、服务和供应链的影响

基础人工智能（AI）是一种通用技术，它将影响各行各业的经济活动，并可能对就业和国际贸易产生重大影响。这可能包括日常和非日常白领工作的自动化，从而减少这些工作外包的国际贸易。然而，如果人工智能能够补充现有工作并带来更高的生产率，就会为国际服务贸易带来新的机遇。基础人工智能如何影响国际贸易还将取决于如何对其进行监管。各国政府正着手监管人工智能，这可能成为国际贸易的障碍。地缘政治也可能破坏人工智能深化全球化和人工智能贸易的机会，因为美国和中国限制构建和运行基础人工智能系统所需的技术贸易。自由贸易协定（FTAs）和数字经济协定（DEAs）越来越重视规范人工智能对国际贸易的影响。世界贸易组织（WTO）联合声明倡议（JSI）电子商务谈判也可以支持人工智能贸易。然而，贸易政策在最大限度地减少人工智能贸易壁垒方面还有许多工作要做。

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来源期刊

Asian Economic Policy Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

12.90

自引率

2.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： The goal of the Asian Economic Policy Review is to become an intellectual voice on the current issues of international economics and economic policy, based on comprehensive and in-depth analyses, with a primary focus on Asia. Emphasis is placed on identifying key issues at the time - spanning international trade, international finance, the environment, energy, the integration of regional economies and other issues - in order to furnish ideas and proposals to contribute positively to the policy debate in the region.