Combining genetic and environmental data to map and model regions of provenance for silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) in Italy

IF 1.9 3区 农林科学 Q2 FORESTRY New Forests Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI:10.1007/s11056-023-10000-2
Maurizio Marchi
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Abstract

Abstract Regions of provenance for forest reproductive materials are the basis for wise use of forest resources in a changing climate. In this work a modelling framework is proposed for silver fir ( Abies alba Mill.) in Italy where genetic clusters described by nuclear microsatellites were combined with high-resolution climatic data. When the genetic clusters were too large or had an uncertain ecological niche expression, an additional subregion division-was evaluated according to a climatic assessment. Subsequently each genecological group (Region of Provenance, RoP) was projected in geographic space separately using species distribution modelling (SDM) procedure under current (1991–2020) and a future climate scenario derived from the 6th assessment report for the period 2041–2070. The final division into nine RoPs was able to explain 77.41% of the total climatic variance, a good trade-off between statistical significance and practical usability. The modelling steps then showed a large degree of ecological overlap between RoPs with some of them occurring in similar ecological environments but characterized by a different genetic structure. When projected at the continental scale, the Italian RoPs were found to be suitable for almost all the current European range of silver fir, with potential expansion in Nordic countries in the future, beyond the current distribution range. The study showed that the combination of genetic and ecological data can be a robust way to proceed in areas where a strong genetic differentiation between populations occurs, such as in Italy. New markers such as SNPs can then be used to detect adaptive traits and drive the selection of provenances for common garden experiments in areas where the SDM modelscurrently extrapolate potential sites outside the current natural range.
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结合遗传和环境数据绘制意大利银杉(Abies alba Mill.)种源分布图和模型
摘要森林生殖材料的种源区域是在气候变化条件下合理利用森林资源的基础。在这项工作中,提出了意大利银杉(Abies alba Mill.)的建模框架,其中核微卫星描述的遗传集群与高分辨率气候数据相结合。当遗传集群太大或生态位表达不确定时,根据气候评估评估额外的子区域划分。随后,利用物种分布模型(SDM)程序在当前(1991-2020年)和基于第六次评估报告的2041-2070年期间的未来气候情景下分别在地理空间上预测了每个属生态群(种源区,RoP)。最终划分为9个rop能够解释77.41%的总气候方差,在统计显著性和实际可用性之间取得了很好的平衡。然后,建模步骤显示,rop之间存在很大程度的生态重叠,其中一些发生在相似的生态环境中,但具有不同的遗传结构。当在大陆尺度上进行预测时,意大利rop被发现适用于几乎所有当前欧洲范围的银杉,未来在北欧国家有可能扩展,超出当前的分布范围。该研究表明,遗传和生态数据的结合可能是在种群之间存在强烈遗传差异的地区(如意大利)进行研究的有力方法。诸如snp这样的新标记可以用来检测适应性特征,并推动在SDM模型目前推断出当前自然范围之外的潜在地点的地区进行普通花园实验的种源选择。
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来源期刊
New Forests
New Forests 农林科学-林学
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
9.10%
发文量
48
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: New Forests publishes original papers on the fundamental and applied aspects of afforestation and reforestation for a broad international audience of scientists and practitioners. Journal articles concern the reproduction of trees and forests originating from seed, planted seedlings or coppice for the purposes of resource protection, timber production, and agro-forestry. Natural and artificial methods of regeneration and all stand structures from even-aged to uneven-aged are considered. Topics include general silviculture, plant physiology, genetics, biotechnology, ecology, economics, protection, and management of all stages in the process of afforestation and reforestation.
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