Percolation Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic

Abstract

Abstract The spread of COVID-19 can be greatly influenced by human mobility. However, implementing control measures based on restrictions can be costly. That is why it is crucial to develop a quarantine strategy that can minimize the spread of the disease while also reducing costs. This article focuses on determining the percolation threshold of COVID-19 in Tehran province using a square lattice and two types of city connections. The study identifies the number of roads that need to be closed and the cities that should be quarantined. Monte Carlo simulations using the Newman and Ziff and Union-Find algorithms were conducted through the $$\text {SEAIRD}$$ SEAIRD model to assess the effectiveness of the proposed measures. The results showed a possible reduction of 81 $$\%$$ % in disease spread. This approach can be used in other regions to assist in the development of public health policies.