Methodology for risk assessment of engineering procurement construction project based on the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy multiple attributes group decision making

Abstract

With the continuous development of China’s economic system, the development of the construction industry is becoming more and more rapid, and the number and scale of construction projects are increasing. Due to the characteristics of large projects and long cycles, there are a large number of construction parties involved in construction projects. The increase in the number of participating partners makes it difficult for their projects to be integrated and managed by management departments such as owners, let alone for various parties to collaborate in the construction of projects. In order to effectively solve this problem, the engineering procurement construction (EPC) general contracting model has emerged. The risk assessment of EPC project is classical multiple attributes group decision making (MAGDM). The probabilistic hesitancy fuzzy sets (PHFSs) are used as a tool for characterizing uncertain information during the risk assessment of EPC project. In this paper, the classical grey relational analysis (GRA) method is extended to PHFSs. Firstly, the basic concept, comparative formula and Hamming distance of PHFSs are introduced. Then, the definition of the score values is employed to obtain the attribute weights based on the information entropy. Then, probabilistic hesitancy fuzzy GRA (PHF-GRA) method is built for MAGDM under PHFSs. Finally, a practical case study for risk assessment of EPC project is designed to validate the proposed method and some comparative studies are also designed to verify the applicability.