Climate Change vs Cultural Heritage: An Adaptation Strategy for the Archaeological Site of Ancient Messene

Abstract

This article examines the effects of climate change on archaeological sites, using as a case study the archaeological site of Ancient Messene in Greece, and proposes an integrated adaptation strategy. In order to determine the site’s most significant risks, a climate data analysis was conducted, taking into account three different climate emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) and two future periods (2031-2060, 2071-2100). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability assessment methodology was adopted to assess the vulnerability of the archaeological site to the effects of climate change. This is the first time such a methodology has been followed in Greece. The analysis revealed that the site’s critical hazards are fire, desertification, and flooding. The geographical location of the site in an intensely dry microclimate and the lack of safe and functional electromechanical and road infrastructure increase its vulnerability. The materials of the monuments are indirectly and directly impacted by climate change, whereas the vegetation is negatively impacted by the frequency of extreme events, especially wildfires. Based on the analysis results, a five-axis adaptation strategy was developed.