Gulf states and the Indo-Pacific: agents or objects of geopolitical competition?

Abstract

For many years, Gulf countries looked at the US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific as a topic disconnected from their own foreign policies. The great power rivalry may have intensified throughout the last decade but seen from Gulf capitals, its effects were mostly felt in East Asia. Likewise, the Indo-Pacific concept may have gained traction in the US during the Trump presidency, but Gulf thinkers and decision makers largely felt that this was a designated region that started on the US West Coast to end on India's shore with minimal impact for the Arabian Peninsula. As a result, Gulf states have not considered the Indo-Pacific as a security complex of immediate consequence and followed policies and bilateral engagements in the area with little concern for their strategic implications. The benign neglect of Gulf states for the Indo-Pacific did not mean they were absent from the regional developments. In fact, they have built stronger ties with most of the primary players. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased their engagement with India under the premiership of Narendra Modi while economic and military cooperation with countries like Indonesia, Australia and South Korea have also expanded. The most spectacular change relates to the attitude of Gulf states towards China.