Detection of Space-Time Clusters and Ambient Temperature Effects on Non-Toxigenic Vibrio Cholerae in Russia from 2005 To 2021

Abstract

Introduction: The identification of climate temperature-sensitive pathogens and infectious diseases is essential in addressing health risks resulting from global warming. Such research is especially crucial in regions where climate change may have a more significant impact like Russia. Recent studies have reasoned that the abundance of non-toxigenic V. cholerae is environmentally driven and can be part of early global warming signals for Russian territory. The aim of the study is to investigate the spatial-temporal trends and thermo-climatic sensitivity of non-toxigenic V. cholerae abundance in Russia. Methods: This study employed Kulldorff’s space-time statistics to identify persistent clusters of the V. cholerae ctx- isolation and areas for exploring temperature-depended patterns of the vibrio distribution. Correlation analysis was used to identify regions with temperature-driven Vibrio abundance in water samples. Results: The spatial analysis detected 16 persistent (7-8 year) clusters of V. cholerae ctx- across the study period 2005-2021. The number of clusters with RR >1 abandoning from the south to the north and the total number of persistent clusters (9) is greater in the period of 2014(5)-2021 compared with the period 2005-2013 (7). A distinct significant thermo-climatic effect on the abundance of V. cholerae ctx- in water basins was found in three Russian regions with temperate marine (the Kaliningrad region) and sharp continental climatic conditions (the Irkutsk region and the Republic of Sakha). The temperature and Vibrio prevalence trend curves are peaky (the Kaliningrad region and the Republic of Sakha) or bell-shaped (the Irkutsk region) changed and closely followed together. Conclusion: The persistent clusters should become targeted areas to improve sanitation conditions. The study offers valuable outcomes to support simplified empirical evaluations of the potential hazards of vibrio abundance that might be useful locally for public health authorities and globally as a part of Russia's warning system of climate change effects.