Diplomatic complexity and long-tailed distributions: the function of non-strategic bilateral relations

Abstract

Abstract States enact relations with both important partners and seemingly irrelevant countries. The non-strategic constitutes the larger set; a histogram could visualize them in a long-tailed distribution, with the x -axis denoting the partner countries, and the y -axis showing the interaction density. Investigating the function of this long tail, this paper premises that the international is characterized by complexity, meaning that the number of elements is so large that it is impossible to realize all relations simultaneously. States thus select their diplomatic partners based on power-rationales. The thereby inactive nodes nevertheless pose sources of danger, requiring occasional signals of amity—hence a long tail comes about. A repertoire of cheap and quick but unambiguously sovereign practices (such as Twiplomacy, gifts, or honorary consulates) can be spontaneously activated to fill otherwise neglected inter-state ties. Seemingly trivial gestures thus ensure peace among plural polities under the constraint of systemic complexity.