Ground-Motion Model for Significant Duration Constrained by Seismological Simulations

IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI:10.1785/0120230139
Camilo Pinilla-Ramos, Norman Abrahamson, Van-Bang Phung, Robert Kayen, Pablo Castellanos-Nash
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Abstract

ABSTRACT A duration ground-motion model for crustal earthquakes based on the normalized Arias intensity (IA) is developed. Two sets of seismological simulations are used to constrain the form and scaling of the duration model. Simulations using a 3D crustal model show that an additive model for the source, path, and site terms captures the physical behavior of duration better than a multiplicative model for the site term. Stochastic finite-fault simulations are used to constrain the saturation of the large-magnitude scaling at short distances. The duration model is developed in two parts: a duration model for the time interval between 5% and 75% of the normalized Arias intensity (D5−75) and a duration model for the ratio of the D5−X/D5−75 duration for X values from 10 to 95. Together, these two models provide a more complete description of the evolution of the seismic energy with time than a single duration metric. A new aspect of the statistical model for duration is the inclusion of a random effect for the path term in addition to random effects for the source and site terms. The source and site random effects are modeled as scale factors on the duration, whereas the path-term random effect is a scale factor on the distance slope. The distribution of the duration residuals has a skewness that is between the skewness of a lognormal distribution and the symmetry of a normal distribution. The final duration aleatory variability is modeled by a power-normal distribution with an exponent of 0.3, which accounts for the amplitude dependence of the aleatory variability of the duration with smaller aleatory variability for large-magnitude events and larger aleatory variability for small-magnitude events as compared to the variability from a lognormal distribution.
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地震模拟约束下显著持续时间的地震动模型
摘要建立了一种基于归一化阿里亚斯烈度(IA)的地壳地震持续时地震动模型。利用两组地震模拟来约束持续时间模型的形式和尺度。利用三维地壳模型进行的模拟表明,震源、路径和地点项的相加模型比地点项的乘法模型更能捕捉到持续时间的物理行为。采用随机有限断层模拟来约束近距离大震级尺度的饱和。持续时间模型分为两部分:一个持续时间模型用于标准化咏叹调强度(D5−75)的5%至75%的时间间隔,一个持续时间模型用于X值从10到95的D5−X/D5−75持续时间之比。总之,这两个模型提供了一个更完整的描述地震能量随时间的演变比单一的持续时间指标。持续时间统计模型的一个新方面是,除了源项和站点项的随机效应外,还包括路径项的随机效应。源随机效应和场地随机效应作为持续时间的尺度因子建模,而路径项随机效应是距离坡度的尺度因子。持续时间残差分布的偏度介于对数正态分布的偏度和正态分布的对称性之间。与对数正态分布的变异性相比,大震级事件的变异性较小,而小震级事件的变异性较大的持续时间的变异性的幅度依赖性,最终持续时间的变异率由指数为0.3的幂正态分布来模拟。
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来源期刊
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
13.30%
发文量
140
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, commonly referred to as BSSA, (ISSN 0037-1106) is the premier journal of advanced research in earthquake seismology and related disciplines. It first appeared in 1911 and became a bimonthly in 1963. Each issue is composed of scientific papers on the various aspects of seismology, including investigation of specific earthquakes, theoretical and observational studies of seismic waves, inverse methods for determining the structure of the Earth or the dynamics of the earthquake source, seismometry, earthquake hazard and risk estimation, seismotectonics, and earthquake engineering. Special issues focus on important earthquakes or rapidly changing topics in seismology. BSSA is published by the Seismological Society of America.
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