Analysis of India’s Trade Potential with RCEP Members: A Study Using Gravity Model

Amlan Ray, Akash Doifode, None Badri Narayanan G, None Deepika M. G.
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Abstract

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement was concluded in the year 2020 between ASEAN and its five free trade agreement (FTA) partners excluding India, which was a part of the negotiation since its inception. RCEP remains important for India considering its volume of trade with member countries and FTAs it has with various members of the group. During signing of RCEP, India had FTAs with 12 members except China, Australia and New Zealand. Later, India signed an interim FTA with Australia in April 2022, followed by an Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement in December 2022. The trade potential India has with these countries will be of interest to the policymakers for influencing its future direction of trade. India’s trade potential with Australia, China and New Zealand with whom it did not have an FTA till the signing of RCEP is important from the perspective of entering into bilateral trade agreements. In this article, the gravity model is used to measure India’s potential trade with RCEP as a block and individually with China, Australia and New Zealand. Here, a high-dimensional fixed effect Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood model is used for measuring potential trade. A comparison of potential trade with the actual shows that India has more potential for expansion of exports than imports with RCEP as a block and in particular with China, Australia and New Zealand.
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印度与RCEP成员国的贸易潜力分析:基于重力模型的研究
区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)于2020年由东盟与除印度外的五个自由贸易协定(FTA)伙伴达成,自启动以来一直是谈判的一部分。考虑到印度与各成员国的贸易额以及与各成员国签订的自由贸易协定,RCEP对印度来说仍然很重要。在RCEP签署期间,印度与除中国、澳大利亚、新西兰外的12个成员签署了自由贸易协定。随后,印度于2022年4月与澳大利亚签署了临时自由贸易协定,随后于2022年12月签署了经济合作与贸易协定。印度与这些国家的贸易潜力将引起政策制定者的兴趣,以影响其未来的贸易方向。从签订双边贸易协定的角度来看,印度与澳大利亚、中国和新西兰的贸易潜力非常重要,直到RCEP签署后,印度才与这些国家签署自由贸易协定。在本文中,重力模型用于衡量印度作为一个整体与RCEP的潜在贸易,以及与中国、澳大利亚和新西兰的单独贸易。本文采用高维固定效应泊松伪极大似然模型对潜在贸易进行测度。潜在贸易与实际贸易的比较表明,在RCEP作为一个整体,特别是与中国、澳大利亚和新西兰的贸易中,印度扩大出口的潜力大于扩大进口的潜力。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
121
期刊介绍: Vision-The Journal of Business Perspective is a quarterly peer-reviewed journal of the Management Development Institute, Gurgaon, India published by SAGE Publications. This journal contains papers in all functional areas of management, including economic and business environment. The journal is premised on creating influence on the academic as well as corporate thinkers. Vision-The Journal of Business Perspective is published in March, June, September and December every year. Its targeted readers are researchers, academics involved in research, and corporates with excellent professional backgrounds from India and other parts of the globe. Its contents have been often used as supportive course materials by the academics and corporate professionals. The journal has been providing opportunity for discussion and exchange of ideas across the widest spectrum of scholarly opinions to promote theoretical, empirical and comparative research on problems confronting the business world. Most of the contributors to this journal range from the outstanding and the well published to the upcoming young academics and corporate functionaries. The journal publishes theoretical as well as applied research works.
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