The Effect of Upgrading the Dietary Structure of Residents on Non-grain Production of Cultivated Land

Abstract

The impact of dietary structure adjustments among residents on the utilization of arable land has attracted academic attention. This study used the time series data for the dietary structure of residents from 1992 to 2021 in China to explore the dynamic impact mechanism of dietary structure upgrading on non-grain production by using VAR model, and analyzed the direction and degree of impact by using impulse response diagram and variance decomposition. This analysis indicated five key features of this system. (1) The average value of the non-grain production rate was 31.02% during the period of 1992–2021, and it showed a fluctuating upward trend. (2) The proportion of plant food consumption by the residents was decreasing and the proportion of animal food was increasing, and the structure of food consumption was shifting from singular to diversified. (3) The intake levels of protein, fat, dietary fibre, and calcium showed fluctuating upward trends, and the intakes of energy and carbohydrate showed a fluctuating downward trends, and the change in the dietary nutrient intake level of residents was consistent with the trend of change in the per capita food consumption structure. (4) On the whole, protein, fat and calcium intake had positive effects on non-grain production, indicating that increases in animal food consumption would aggravate the non-grain production. (5) Overall, energy, protein, and calcium intakes had greater impacts on non-grain production. The results of this study can provide scientific support for the non-grain governance strategy of arable land and the decisions regarding arable land protection from the concept of “an all-encompassing approach to food”. These results also have positive significance for optimizing the mode of arable land use, improving the efficiency of arable land use and ensuring food security under the background of dietary structure adjustments and upgrading.