Glacier projections sensitivity to temperature-index model choices and calibration strategies

IF 2.5 4区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Annals of Glaciology Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI:10.1017/aog.2023.57
Lilian Schuster, David R. Rounce, Fabien Maussion
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract The uncertainty of glacier change projections is largely influenced by glacier models. In this study, we focus on temperature-index mass-balance (MB) models and their calibration. Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), we examine the influence of different surface-type dependent degree-day factors, temporal climate resolutions (daily, monthly) and downscaling options (temperature lapse rates, temperature and precipitation corrections) for 88 glaciers with in-situ observations. Our findings indicate that higher spatial and temporal resolution observations enhance MB gradient representation due to an improved calibration. The addition of surface-type distinction in the model also improves MB gradients, but the lack of independent observations limits our ability to demonstrate the added value of increased model complexity. Some model choices have systematic effects, for example weaker temperature lapse rates result in smaller projected glaciers. However, we often find counter balancing effects, such as the sensitivity to different degree-day factors for snow, firn and ice, which depends on how the glacier accumulation area ratio changes in the future. Similarly, using daily versus monthly climate data can affect glaciers differently depending on the shifting balance between melt and solid precipitation thresholds. Our study highlights the importance of considering minor model design differences to predict future glacier volumes and runoff accurately.
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冰川预估对温度指数模型选择和校准策略的敏感性
冰川变化预估的不确定性在很大程度上受冰川模式的影响。在本研究中,我们重点研究温度指数质量平衡(MB)模型及其校准。利用开放式全球冰川模式(OGGM),研究了不同地表类型依赖的度-日因子、时间气候分辨率(日、月)和降尺度选项(温度递减率、温度和降水校正)对88个冰川的影响。我们的研究结果表明,由于改进了校准,更高的空间和时间分辨率观测增强了MB梯度表示。在模型中加入表面类型区分也改善了MB梯度,但缺乏独立观测限制了我们证明模型复杂性增加的附加价值的能力。一些模式选择具有系统效应,例如较弱的温度递减率导致较小的预估冰川。然而,我们经常发现逆平衡效应,例如对雪、雪和冰不同程度日因子的敏感性,这取决于冰川积累面积比在未来如何变化。同样,使用日和月气候数据对冰川的影响也不同,这取决于融水和固体降水阈值之间的变化平衡。我们的研究强调了考虑较小的模型设计差异对准确预测未来冰川体积和径流的重要性。
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来源期刊
Annals of Glaciology
Annals of Glaciology GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
8.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Annals of Glaciology publishes original scientific articles and letters in selected aspects of glaciology-the study of ice. Each issue of the Annals is thematic, focussing on a specific subject. The Council of the International Glaciological Society welcomes proposals for thematic issues from the glaciological community. Once a theme is approved, the Council appoints an Associate Chief Editor and a team of Scientific Editors to handle the submission, peer review and publication of papers.
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