Assessing the Ensemble Assimilation System for Forecasting the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Sonca (2017) in the Vietnam East Sea using a Lagrangian Approach

Abstract

: With the aim of evaluating the cyclogenesis predictability of Sonca (2017) using an ensemble prediction system from the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) to model WRF, the study proposed a dynamical assessment method with a Lagrangian approach that is stable and independent of time and reference systes. With this approach, the study can clearly distinguish between cases of tropical cyclone (TC) formation and non-formation in the ensemble forecast members. By evaluating the thermodynamic conditions of the low-level circulation between the forming and non-forming groups, the study found that the ocean-atmosphere interaction and the vortex merger process play imnportant roles in the formation of Sonca. The evaluation of the formation location showed that the detected vortex centers from the forming members tended to concentrate near the monsoon trough axis, indicating that this is a highly favorable region for vortex formation in the Vietnam East Sea.