Gambling to Preserve Price (and Fiscal) Stability

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Imf Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI:10.1057/s41308-023-00214-x

Giancarlo Corsetti, Bartosz Maćkowiak

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We study a model in which policy aims at aggregate price stability. A fiscal imbalance materializes that, if uncorrected, must cause inflation, but the imbalance may get corrected in the future with some probability. By maintaining price stability in the near term, monetary policy can buy time for a correction to take place. The policy gamble may succeed, preserving price and fiscal stability, or fail, leading to a delayed, possibly large jump in the price level. The resulting dynamics resemble the models of a currency crisis following Krugman (J Money Credit Bank 11:311–325, 1979) and Obstfeld (Am Econ Rev 76: 72–81, 1986). Like in Obstfeld’s work, multiple equilibria arise naturally: whether or not price stability is preserved may depend on private agents’ expectations. The model can be reinterpreted as a model of partial default on public debt, in which case it is reminiscent of Calvo (Am Econ Rev 78:647–661, 1988).

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赌博维持物价(和财政)稳定

我们研究了一个以总价格稳定为目标的政策模型。财政失衡如果不加以纠正，必然会导致通货膨胀，但这种失衡在未来有一定的可能性会得到纠正。通过在短期内维持价格稳定，货币政策可以为市场调整赢得时间。政策赌博可能会成功，保持价格和财政稳定，也可能会失败，导致价格水平出现延迟的、可能大幅的跃升。由此产生的动态类似于克鲁格曼(J Money Credit Bank 11:31 - 325, 1979)和奥布斯特费尔德(Am Econ Rev 76: 72-81, 1986)提出的货币危机模型。就像奥布斯特菲尔德的研究一样，多重均衡是自然产生的:价格稳定能否保持可能取决于私人代理人的预期。该模型可以被重新解释为公共债务部分违约模型，在这种情况下，它让人想起Calvo (Am Econ Rev 78:647-661, 1988)。

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来源期刊

Imf Economic Review Multiple-

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

4.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IMF Economic Review is the official research journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is dedicated to publishing peer-reviewed, high-quality, context-related academic research on open-economy macroeconomics. It emphasizes rigorous analysis with an empirical orientation that is of interest to a broad audience, including academics and policymakers. Studies that borrow from, and interact with, other fields such as finance, international trade, political economy, labor, economic history or development are also welcome. The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to, or reported as, reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein. Comments “The IMF Economic Review has been uniquely successful in publishing papers that rigorously analyze real international macroeconomic problems and in a manner that has immediate policy relevance. This success is owed to a great extent to the high quality of the editorial board, which is able to identify papers that are both relevant for policy and are executed using state-of-the-art tools so as to make the analysis compelling.” - Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “IMF Economic Review is devoted to state-of-the-art research on the global economy. Given the Fund''s unique position on the front lines of surveillance and crisis management, anyone interested in international economic policy or in macroeconomics more generally will find this journal to be essential reading.” - Maurice Obstfeld, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “There is great need for a rigorous academic publication that addresses the key global macro questions of our times. This is what the IMF Economic Review aims to be.” - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Editor of the IMF Economic Review “To navigate the global crisis, and to take the best policy decisions, will require mobilizing and extending the knowledge we have about open economy macro, from the implications of liquidity traps, to the dangers of large fiscal deficits, to macro-financial interactions, to the contours of a better international monetary and financial system. My hope and my expectation is that the IMF Economic Review will be central to the effort.” - Olivier J. Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics; former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department, IMF

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