Algorithmic Hallucinations of Near-Surface Winds: Statistical Downscaling with Generative Adversarial Networks to Convection-Permitting Scales

Abstract

Abstract This paper explores the application of emerging machine learning methods from image super-resolution (SR) to the task of statistical downscaling. We specifically focus on convolutional neural network-based Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Our GANs are conditioned on low-resolution (LR) inputs to generate high-resolution (HR) surface winds emulating Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations over North America. Unlike traditional SR models, where LR inputs are idealized coarsened versions of the HR images, WRF emulation involves using non-idealized LR and HR pairs resulting in shared-scale mismatches due to internal variability. Our study builds upon current SR-based statistical downscaling by experimenting with a novel frequency-separation (FS) approach from the computer vision field. To assess the skill of SR models, we carefully select evaluation metrics, and focus on performance measures based on spatial power spectra. Our analyses reveal how GAN configurations influence spatial structures in the generated fields, particularly biases in spatial variability spectra. Using power spectra to evaluate the FS experiments reveals that successful applications of FS in computer vision do not translate to climate fields. However, the FS experiments demonstrate the sensitivity of power spectra to a commonly used GAN-based SR objective function, which helps interpret and understand its role in determining spatial structures. This result motivates the development of a novel partial frequency-separation scheme as a promising configuration option. We also quantify the influence on GAN performance of non-idealized LR fields resulting from internal variability. Furthermore, we conduct a spectra-based feature-importance experiment allowing us to explore the dependence of the spatial structure of generated fields on different physically relevant LR covariates.