Assessing the predictive performance of creep models using absolute rather than squared prediction errors: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel and 316H stainless steel
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Abstract
A reliable means of assessing the accuracy of a creep model’s predictions is fundamental to safe power plant operation. This paper introduces a method of decomposing the mean absolute prediction error for such a purpose to overcome the limitations that are inherent in the traditional approach of squaring prediction errors to prevent over and underestimates of life offsetting each other. When this method is applied to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel and 316 H stainless steel, it was found that squared errors leads to overestimates of the average prediction error associated with a particular creep model, and it also dramatically underestimates the proportion of this error that is systematic in nature. These differences were more noticeable for 316 H stainless steel.
期刊介绍：
Materials at High Temperatures welcomes contributions relating to high temperature applications in the energy generation, aerospace, chemical and process industries. The effects of high temperatures and extreme environments on the corrosion and oxidation, fatigue, creep, strength and wear of metallic alloys, ceramics, intermetallics, and refractory and composite materials relative to these industries are covered.
Papers on the modelling of behaviour and life prediction are also welcome, provided these are validated by experimental data and explicitly linked to actual or potential applications. Contributions addressing the needs of designers and engineers (e.g. standards and codes of practice) relative to the areas of interest of this journal also fall within the scope. The term ''high temperatures'' refers to the subsequent temperatures of application and not, for example, to those of processing itself.
Materials at High Temperatures publishes regular thematic issues on topics of current interest. Proposals for issues are welcomed; please contact one of the Editors with details.
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