{"title":"Intelligence for human security: measuring outcomes quantitatively","authors":"Steven Stottlemyre","doi":"10.1080/02684527.2023.2250478","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This article examines whether increased intelligence capacity improves global security, a key assumption in intelligence theory. Using the partial least squares structural equation modelling method, the research statistically analyzes data from the U.S. International Intelligence Behaviour dataset and Global Terrorism Database. Grounded in intelligence studies and international relations theory, the study integrates a constructivist human security framework. Surprisingly, the results show a significant correlation between increased intelligence capacity and the degree of terrorism, suggesting intelligence may undermine rather than enhance human security. This finding challenges traditional assumptions, though it must be viewed cautiously due to potential endogeneity.","PeriodicalId":47048,"journal":{"name":"Intelligence and National Security","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Intelligence and National Security","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2023.2250478","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HISTORY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This article examines whether increased intelligence capacity improves global security, a key assumption in intelligence theory. Using the partial least squares structural equation modelling method, the research statistically analyzes data from the U.S. International Intelligence Behaviour dataset and Global Terrorism Database. Grounded in intelligence studies and international relations theory, the study integrates a constructivist human security framework. Surprisingly, the results show a significant correlation between increased intelligence capacity and the degree of terrorism, suggesting intelligence may undermine rather than enhance human security. This finding challenges traditional assumptions, though it must be viewed cautiously due to potential endogeneity.
期刊介绍：
Intelligence has never played a more prominent role in international politics than it does now in the early years of the twenty-first century. National intelligence services are larger than ever, and they are more transparent in their activities in the policy making of democratic nations. Intelligence and National Security is widely regarded as the world''s leading scholarly journal focused on the role of intelligence and secretive agencies in international relations. It examines this aspect of national security from a variety of perspectives and academic disciplines, with insightful articles research and written by leading experts based around the globe. Among the topics covered in the journal are: • the historical development of intelligence agencies • representations of intelligence in popular culture • public understandings and expectations related to intelligence • intelligence and ethics • intelligence collection and analysis • covert action and counterintelligence • privacy and intelligence accountability • the outsourcing of intelligence operations • the role of politics in intelligence activities • international intelligence cooperation and burden-sharing • the relationships among intelligence agencies, military organizations, and civilian policy departments. Authors for Intelligence and National Security come from a range of disciplines, including international affairs, history, sociology, political science, law, anthropology, philosophy, medicine, statistics, psychology, bio-sciences, and mathematics. These perspectives are regularly augmented by research submitted from current and former intelligence practitioners in several different nations. Each issue features a rich menu of articles about the uses (and occasional misuses) of intelligence, supplemented from time to time with special forums on current intelligence issues and interviews with leading intelligence officials.
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