Lessons learnt from a rockfall time series analysis: data collection, statistical analysis, and applications

IF 4.2 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI:10.5194/nhess-23-3079-2023
Sandra Melzner, Marco Conedera, Johannes Hübl, Mauro Rossi
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Abstract

Abstract. Historical rockfall catalogues are important data sources for the investigation of the temporal occurrence of rockfalls, which is crucial information for rockfall hazard and risk assessments. However, such catalogues are rare and often incomplete. Here, we selected and analysed seven catalogues of historical rockfalls in Austria, Italy, and the USA to highlight existing relationships between data collection and mapping methods and representativeness of the resulting rockfall records. Heuristic and simple statistically based frequency analysis methods are applied to describe and compare the different historical rockfall catalogues. Our results show that the mapping strategy may affect the frequency of the assessed rockfall occurrence and the completeness and representativeness of the related time series of historical rockfalls. We conclude by presenting the advantages and limitations of the application of different frequency-based methods for analysing rockfall catalogues and providing recommendations for rockfall mapping. We furthermore present non-parametric statistical methods for dealing with typically small rockfall datasets, which are particularly suited for the characterization of basic rockfall catalogues. Such recommendations should help in the definition of standards for collecting and using temporal rockfall data in hazard and risk assessments.
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岩崩时间序列分析的经验教训:数据收集、统计分析和应用
摘要历史岩崩目录是调查岩崩发生时间的重要数据来源,是岩崩危害和风险评估的重要信息。然而,这样的目录是罕见的,而且往往是不完整的。在这里,我们选择并分析了奥地利、意大利和美国的七个历史岩落目录,以突出数据收集和制图方法之间的现有关系,以及由此产生的岩落记录的代表性。采用启发式和简单的基于统计的频率分析方法来描述和比较不同的历史岩崩目录。结果表明,作图策略可能会影响评估的岩崩发生频率以及相关历史岩崩时间序列的完整性和代表性。最后,我们提出了应用不同的基于频率的方法来分析岩崩目录的优点和局限性,并为岩崩制图提供了建议。我们进一步提出了非参数统计方法来处理典型的小型岩崩数据集,这特别适合于基本岩崩目录的表征。这些建议应有助于确定在危害和风险评估中收集和使用时间岩崩数据的标准。
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来源期刊
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
7.60
自引率
6.50%
发文量
192
审稿时长
3.8 months
期刊介绍: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) is an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences. Embracing a holistic Earth system science approach, NHESS serves a wide and diverse community of research scientists, practitioners, and decision makers concerned with detection of natural hazards, monitoring and modelling, vulnerability and risk assessment, and the design and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies, including economical, societal, and educational aspects.
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