Xu Dong Zhu, Jia Hui Yu, Fu Lu Ai, Yue Wang, Wu Lv, Gui Lin Yu, Xian Kui Cao, Jie Lin
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Postoperative distant metastasis is the main cause of death in breast cancer patients. We aimed to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of metastasis of luminal B type invasive ductal carcinoma.
Methods: We applied the data of 364 luminal B type breast cancer patients between 2008 and 2013. Patients were categorized into modeling group and validation group randomly (1:1). The breast cancer metastasis nomogram was developed from the logistic regression model using clinicopathological variables. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated in modeling group and validation group to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram.
Results: The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that tumor size, No. of the positive level 1 axillary lymph nodes, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status and Ki67 index were the independent predictors of the breast cancer metastasis. The AUC values of the modeling group and the validation group were 0.855 and 0.818, respectively. The nomogram had a well-fitted calibration curve. The positive and negative predictive values were 49.3% and 92.7% in the modeling group, and 47.9% and 91.0% in the validation group. Patients who had a score of 60 or more were thought to have a high risk of breast cancer metastasis.
Conclusions: The nomogram has a great predictive accuracy of predicting the risk of breast cancer metastasis. If patients had a score of 60 or more, necessary measures, like more standard treatment methods and higher treatment adherence of patients, are needed to take to lower the risk of metastasis and improve the prognosis.
期刊介绍:
World Journal of Oncology, bimonthly, publishes original contributions describing basic research and clinical investigation of cancer, on the cellular, molecular, prevention, diagnosis, therapy and prognosis aspects. The submissions can be basic research or clinical investigation oriented. This journal welcomes those submissions focused on the clinical trials of new treatment modalities for cancer, and those submissions focused on molecular or cellular research of the oncology pathogenesis. Case reports submitted for consideration of publication should explore either a novel genomic event/description or a new safety signal from an oncolytic agent. The areas of interested manuscripts are these disciplines: tumor immunology and immunotherapy; cancer molecular pharmacology and chemotherapy; drug sensitivity and resistance; cancer epidemiology; clinical trials; cancer pathology; radiobiology and radiation oncology; solid tumor oncology; hematological malignancies; surgical oncology; pediatric oncology; molecular oncology and cancer genes; gene therapy; cancer endocrinology; cancer metastasis; prevention and diagnosis of cancer; other cancer related subjects. The types of manuscripts accepted are original article, review, editorial, short communication, case report, letter to the editor, book review.