The optimisation of public health emergency governance: a simulation study based on COVID-19 pandemic control policy.

Abstract

Background: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic sparked numerous studies on policy options for managing public health emergencies, especially regarding how to choose the intensity of prevention and control to maintain a balance between economic development and disease prevention.

Methods: We constructed a cost-benefit model of COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control policies based on an epidemic transmission model. On this basis, numerical simulations were performed for different economies to analyse the dynamic evolution of prevention and control policies. These economies include areas with high control costs, as seen in high-income economies, and areas with relatively low control costs, exhibited in upper-middle-income economies.

Results: The simulation results indicate that, at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, both high-and low-cost economies tended to enforce intensive interventions. However, as the virus evolved, particularly in circumstances with relatively rates of reproduction, short incubation periods, short spans of infection and low mortality rates, high-cost economies became inclined to ease restrictions, while low-cost economies took the opposite approach. However, the consideration of additional costs incurred by the non-infected population means that a low-cost economy is likely to lift restrictions as well.

Conclusions: This study concludes that variations in prevention and control policies among nations with varying income levels stem from variances in virus transmission characteristics, economic development, and control costs. This study can help researchers and policymakers better understand the differences in policy choice among various economies as well as the changing trends of dynamic policy choices, thus providing a certain reference value for the policy direction of global public health emergencies.