{"title":"The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income","authors":"Bryan A. Stuart","doi":"10.1257/app.20180055","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980–1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential census data, I estimate difference-in-difference regressions that exploit variation across counties in recession severity and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. For individuals age 0–10 in 1979, a 10 percent decrease in earnings per capita in their county of birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 15 percent and earnings in adulthood by 5 percent. Simple calculations suggest that in aggregate, the 1980–1982 recession led to 1.3–2.8 million fewer college graduates and $66–$139 billion less earned income per year. (JEL E32, I21, I26, J24, J31)","PeriodicalId":48212,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Applied Economics","volume":"879 30","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.5000,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"American Economic Journal-Applied Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20180055","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980–1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential census data, I estimate difference-in-difference regressions that exploit variation across counties in recession severity and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. For individuals age 0–10 in 1979, a 10 percent decrease in earnings per capita in their county of birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 15 percent and earnings in adulthood by 5 percent. Simple calculations suggest that in aggregate, the 1980–1982 recession led to 1.3–2.8 million fewer college graduates and $66–$139 billion less earned income per year. (JEL E32, I21, I26, J24, J31)
期刊介绍:
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics publishes papers covering a range of topics in applied economics, with a focus on empirical microeconomic issues. In particular, we welcome papers on labor economics, development microeconomics, health, education, demography, empirical corporate finance, empirical studies of trade, and empirical behavioral economics.