The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income

IF 5.5 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS American Economic Journal-Applied Economics Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI:10.1257/app.20180055
Bryan A. Stuart
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Abstract

This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980–1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential census data, I estimate difference-in-difference regressions that exploit variation across counties in recession severity and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. For individuals age 0–10 in 1979, a 10 percent decrease in earnings per capita in their county of birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 15 percent and earnings in adulthood by 5 percent. Simple calculations suggest that in aggregate, the 1980–1982 recession led to 1.3–2.8 million fewer college graduates and $66–$139 billion less earned income per year. (JEL E32, I21, I26, J24, J31)
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经济衰退对教育和收入的长期影响
本文考察了1980-1982年经济衰退对教育和收入的长期影响。使用保密的人口普查数据,我估计了差异中的差异回归,这种回归利用了不同县在经济衰退严重程度上的差异,以及经济衰退时不同年龄群体的差异。1979年,0-10岁的人,其出生县的人均收入下降10%,四年制大学学位的获得率下降15%,成年后的收入下降5%。简单的计算表明,总的来说,1980-1982年的经济衰退导致大学毕业生减少了130万至280万人,每年的劳动收入减少了660亿至1390亿美元。(j32, j21, j26, j24, j31)
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.10
自引率
1.60%
发文量
63
期刊介绍: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics publishes papers covering a range of topics in applied economics, with a focus on empirical microeconomic issues. In particular, we welcome papers on labor economics, development microeconomics, health, education, demography, empirical corporate finance, empirical studies of trade, and empirical behavioral economics.
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