Under the shadow of the future: Gender-specific reactions to (un)certain future interactions

Abstract

Expectations are a key element of strategic environments. As it has already been shown that men's performance in current competitions is affected by the expected future opponents' strength, we investigate whether women are overshadowed by future competitors as well. We use data from professional tennis, replicate the results for men and compare it with women's behavior. Extending previous research, we focus on the role of uncertainty in this context, particularly, whether behavior differs when individuals have to form expectations instead of having accurate information. Our results suggest that individuals perform worse in competitions if the expected future opponent is stronger. We find gender-specific behavior when analyzing uncertainty as a potential source: Women's current performance does not depend on the future competitor's strength when they know her for sure, whereas they are overshadowed when having to form expectations. In contrast, men are negatively affected by the future competitor's strength when they know him and when they need to form expectations. Moreover, women (men) rather  seem to be sensitive to direct (more distant) incentives. These findings might be transferred to information revelation in promotion contests to help highly qualified individuals, especially women, climb the career ladder.