{"title":"Aggregate earnings informativeness and economic shocks: international evidence","authors":"Yuto Yoshinaga, Makoto Nakano","doi":"10.1080/16081625.2021.1952084","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>ABSTRACT</b></p><p>Our study proposes the usage of aggregate earnings to forecast future GDP growth. Using empirical analyses with global quarterly data, we investigate whether aggregate-level profitability drivers, which are components of aggregate earnings, are relevant for forecasting GDP growth. After confirming that aggregate-level profitability drivers are useful for forecasting future GDP growth worldwide, we show that considering the effects of crises improves the forecast model of GDP growth. In addition, we suggest that predicting GDP growth using aggregate-level profitability drivers is relevant for stock valuation in developed countries, but not in emerging countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":45890,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics","volume":"25 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2021-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2021.1952084","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
ABSTRACT
Our study proposes the usage of aggregate earnings to forecast future GDP growth. Using empirical analyses with global quarterly data, we investigate whether aggregate-level profitability drivers, which are components of aggregate earnings, are relevant for forecasting GDP growth. After confirming that aggregate-level profitability drivers are useful for forecasting future GDP growth worldwide, we show that considering the effects of crises improves the forecast model of GDP growth. In addition, we suggest that predicting GDP growth using aggregate-level profitability drivers is relevant for stock valuation in developed countries, but not in emerging countries.
期刊介绍：
The Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics (APJAE) is an international forum intended for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of economics and accounting in general. In particular, the journal encourages submissions in the following areas: Auditing, financial reporting, earnings management, financial analysts, the role of accounting information, international trade and finance, industrial organization, strategic behavior, market structure, financial contracts, corporate governance, capital markets, and financial institutions. The journal welcomes contributions related to the Asia Pacific region, and targets top quality research from scholars with diverse regional interests. The editors encourage submission of high quality manuscripts with innovative ideas. The editorial team is committed to an expedient review process.
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