On the design of international match calendar: the effect of “FIFA reserved dates” on European football matches’ outcomes

IF 1.1 Q3 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2022-0041
Levi Pérez
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Abstract

Every season, the international football calendar contains periods reserved for a series of so-called special matches including international friendly or official matches played by national teams. All these periods are called “FIFA reserved dates” in the calendar and generally cause domestic competitions to shut down for some days. Such interruptions of leagues might generate different effects or externalities on the performance of players, clubs or even on the competition itself. While a number of studies focus on the effect of players’ absence on teams performance, this paper contributes to the literature by specifically evaluating the effect of the “FIFA reserved dates” on football outcomes. Using data for four seasons from the “big five” European leagues, I find evidence that the outcomes distribution in those matches played after a “FIFA reserved date” becomes more balanced, thus increasing the uncertainty of outcome. The results of this paper contribute to the ongoing debate about the management and design of the international match calendar.
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论国际比赛日历的设计:“国际足联保留日期”对欧洲足球比赛结果的影响
每个赛季,国际足球日历上都有一系列所谓的特殊比赛,包括国际友谊赛或国家队的正式比赛。所有这些时期在日历上被称为“国际足联保留日”,通常会导致国内比赛关闭几天。联赛的中断可能会对球员、俱乐部甚至比赛本身的表现产生不同的影响或外部性。虽然许多研究关注的是球员缺勤对球队表现的影响,但本文通过具体评估“FIFA保留日期”对足球结果的影响,为文献做出了贡献。使用欧洲五大联赛四个赛季的数据,我发现在“国际足联保留日期”之后进行的比赛的结果分布变得更加平衡,从而增加了结果的不确定性。本文的研究结果有助于对国际比赛日程管理和设计的持续争论。
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来源期刊
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS-
CiteScore
2.00
自引率
12.50%
发文量
15
期刊介绍: The Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (JQAS), an official journal of the American Statistical Association, publishes timely, high-quality peer-reviewed research on the quantitative aspects of professional and amateur sports, including collegiate and Olympic competition. The scope of application reflects the increasing demand for novel methods to analyze and understand data in the growing field of sports analytics. Articles come from a wide variety of sports and diverse perspectives, and address topics such as game outcome models, measurement and evaluation of player performance, tournament structure, analysis of rules and adjudication, within-game strategy, analysis of sporting technologies, and player and team ranking methods. JQAS seeks to publish manuscripts that demonstrate original ways of approaching problems, develop cutting edge methods, and apply innovative thinking to solve difficult challenges in sports contexts. JQAS brings together researchers from various disciplines, including statistics, operations research, machine learning, scientific computing, econometrics, and sports management.
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