Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility

IF 6.3 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2021-06-29 DOI:10.1257/mac.20180131
David Kohn, Fernando Leibovici, Håkon Tretvoll
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Abstract

This paper studies the role of differences in the patterns of production and international trade on the business cycle volatility of emerging and developed economies. We study a multisector small open economy in which firms produce and trade commodities and manufactures. We estimate the model to match key cross-sectional and time-series differences across countries. Emerging economies run trade surpluses in commodities and trade deficits in manufactures, while sectoral trade flows are balanced in developed economies. We find that these differences amplify the response of emerging economies to commodity price fluctuations. We show evidence consistent with this mechanism using cross-country data. (JEL E23, E32, F14, F41, F44)
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商品贸易与商业周期波动
本文研究了生产模式和国际贸易模式的差异对新兴经济体和发达经济体经济周期波动的影响。我们研究了一个多部门的小型开放经济,在这个经济中,企业生产和贸易商品和制成品。我们估计该模型将匹配各国之间的关键横截面和时间序列差异。新兴经济体在大宗商品方面存在贸易顺差,在制成品方面存在贸易逆差,而发达经济体的部门贸易流动是平衡的。我们发现,这些差异放大了新兴经济体对大宗商品价格波动的反应。我们使用跨国数据展示了与这一机制一致的证据。(jel e23, e32, f14, f41, f44)
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.20
自引率
1.70%
发文量
58
期刊介绍: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.
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