{"title":"An analysis of spatial effects of terrorism on stock market returns in the Middle East countries","authors":"Ali Rezazadeh, Vahid Nikpey Pesyan, Azhdar Karami","doi":"10.1108/imefm-01-2023-0031","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>Stock markets are highly sensitive to foreign and domestic events. Stock exchange markets react promptly to news and are known as an indicator of good and bad trading conditions. Terrorist attacks leave adverse effects on the economy and cause stock price volatility and, consequently, stock return volatility. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze the spatial effects of terrorism on stock market returns in the Middle East from 2008 to 2019.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>This paper uses analytical research design and estimates spatial model. Before estimating the spatial model, the spillover effects were confirmed for the spatial autoregressive model using Moran’s diagnostic test for spatial dependence, Geary’s C test and Akaike statistic.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>The results of this study on spatial panel data and based on spatial autoregressive estimator indicated that terrorism and associated neighborhood effects had a negative impact on stock returns in Middle East countries. Also, the corruption index and oil price negatively affected stock market return in these countries, while the democracy index had a positive effect on stock market returns. According to the results, to achieve a high and stable stock market return, it is recommended that high-level consultation is pursued with leaders of involved countries to reduce the devastating effects of terrorist activities, increase political and economic stability, attract stockholders to stock markets and spend corresponding incomes developing the infrastructures in this sector in countries of this region.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>Most of the studies have investigated the impact of terrorism on the stock market returns at the national or provincial level. However, the effect of terrorism on the stock market index in the tense region of the Middle East, which is the center of terrorist attacks in the world, has not been dealt with by considering the spatial econometric effects. Thus, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is a first attempt to study the impact of terrorism on the stock market returns in Middle East countries using the spatial econometric approach.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":47091,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management","volume":"69 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1108/imefm-01-2023-0031","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Purpose
Stock markets are highly sensitive to foreign and domestic events. Stock exchange markets react promptly to news and are known as an indicator of good and bad trading conditions. Terrorist attacks leave adverse effects on the economy and cause stock price volatility and, consequently, stock return volatility. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze the spatial effects of terrorism on stock market returns in the Middle East from 2008 to 2019.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses analytical research design and estimates spatial model. Before estimating the spatial model, the spillover effects were confirmed for the spatial autoregressive model using Moran’s diagnostic test for spatial dependence, Geary’s C test and Akaike statistic.
Findings
The results of this study on spatial panel data and based on spatial autoregressive estimator indicated that terrorism and associated neighborhood effects had a negative impact on stock returns in Middle East countries. Also, the corruption index and oil price negatively affected stock market return in these countries, while the democracy index had a positive effect on stock market returns. According to the results, to achieve a high and stable stock market return, it is recommended that high-level consultation is pursued with leaders of involved countries to reduce the devastating effects of terrorist activities, increase political and economic stability, attract stockholders to stock markets and spend corresponding incomes developing the infrastructures in this sector in countries of this region.
Originality/value
Most of the studies have investigated the impact of terrorism on the stock market returns at the national or provincial level. However, the effect of terrorism on the stock market index in the tense region of the Middle East, which is the center of terrorist attacks in the world, has not been dealt with by considering the spatial econometric effects. Thus, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is a first attempt to study the impact of terrorism on the stock market returns in Middle East countries using the spatial econometric approach.
期刊介绍：
The International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management (IMEFM) publishes quality and in-depth analysis on current issues within Islamic and Middle Eastern finance and management. The journal welcomes strong evidence-based empirical studies and results-focused case studies that share research in product development and clarify best practices. The title is also keen to consider work from emerging authors. IMEFM has just also accepted into Clarivate''s SSCI in 2018, and its IF will be available in summer 2019, with citations dating from 2016. The coverage includes but is not limited to: -Islamic finance: Fundamentals, trends and opportunities in Islamic Finance, Islamic banking and financial markets, Risk management, Corporate finance, Investment strategy, Islamic social finance, Financial planning, Housing finance, Legal and regulatory issues, -Islamic management: Corporate governance, Customer relationship management and service quality, Business ethics and corporate social responsibility, Management styles and strategies in Shariah environments, Labour and welfare economics, Political economy. The journal is the only title aiming to give an interdisciplinary and holistic view on Islamic finance and business management practices in order to inform these two intertwined communities.
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