Mind the hubris in mathematical modeling

Arnald Puy, Andrea Saltelli
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Abstract

Here we briefly reflect on the philosophical foundations that ground the quest towards ever-detailed models and identify four practical dangers derived from this pursuit: explosion of the model's uncertainty space, model black-boxing, computational exhaustion and model attachment. We argue that the growth of a mathematical model should be carefully and continuously pondered lest models become extraneous constructs chasing the Cartesian dream.
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注意数学建模中的傲慢
在这里,我们简要地反思了哲学基础,这些哲学基础使我们追求更详细的模型,并确定了这种追求带来的四种实际危险:模型不确定性空间的爆炸、模型黑盒、计算耗尽和模型依恋。我们认为,数学模型的成长应该是仔细和持续的思考,以免模型成为追逐笛卡尔梦想的无关结构。
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