The 2016 US presidential election, opinion polls and the stock market

IF 1.3 Q3 ECONOMICS Journal of Financial Economic Policy Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI:10.1108/jfep-10-2023-0310

Kamal Upadhyaya, Raja Nag, Demissew Ejara

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the 2016 presidential election polls on the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical model includes daily stock returns as the dependent variable and past asset prices, 10-year treasury rates, opinion polls and VIX (market uncertainty) as explanatory variables with a one-year lag. The model was estimated using two sets of daily polling data: from July 1, 2015, to November 8, 2016, and from June 1, 2016, to November 8, 2016. Additional descriptive statistics, such as means and standard deviations, were also calculated.

Findings

The estimated results did not reveal any statistically significant effects of opinion polls in favor of one candidate over another on stock returns. Simple statistical tests, however, show that the market performed better when Trump held a polling advantage over Clinton.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the only study that has examined the effects of the 2016 presidential election polls on the US stock market. This study adds value to the understanding of the relationship between election polls and the stock market in the USA.

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2016 年美国总统大选、民意调查和股市

本文旨在研究 2016 年总统大选民调对股市的影响。设计/方法/途径该实证模型将每日股票回报率作为因变量，将过去的资产价格、10 年期国债利率、民意调查和 VIX（市场不确定性）作为解释变量，滞后一年。该模型使用两组每日民调数据进行估计：2015 年 7 月 1 日至 2016 年 11 月 8 日，以及 2016 年 6 月 1 日至 2016 年 11 月 8 日。此外，还计算了其他描述性统计数据，如平均值和标准差。然而，简单的统计测试表明，当特朗普的民调优势大于克林顿时，市场表现更好。本研究为了解美国大选民调与股市之间的关系增添了价值。

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来源期刊

Journal of Financial Economic Policy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Financial Economic Policy publishes high quality peer reviewed research on financial economic policy issues. The journal is devoted to the advancement of the understanding of the entire spectrum of financial policy and control issues and their interactions to economic phenomena. Economic and financial phenomena involve complex trade-offs and linkages between various types of risk factors and variables of interest to policy makers and market participants alike. Market participants such as economic policy makers, regulators, banking and competition supervisors, corporations and financial institutions, require timely and robust answers to the contemporary and emerging policy questions. In turn, such answers require thorough input by the academics, policy makers and practitioners alike. The Journal of Financial Economic Policy provides the forum to satisfy this need. The journal publishes and invites concise papers to enable a prompt response to current and emerging policy affairs.