Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Imf Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI:10.1057/s41308-023-00223-w

Katheryn N. Russ, Jay C. Shambaugh, Sanjay R. Singh

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In his papers during the lead up to the birth of the European Monetary Union, Obstfeld considered whether the countries forming the EMU were sufficiently similar to survive a single monetary policy—and more importantly, whether they had the capacity to adjust to asymmetric shocks given a single monetary and exchange rate policy. The convention at the time was to take the United States as the baseline for a smoothly functioning currency union. We expand on stylized facts in the literature to illustrate how stratification in local labor market outcomes appears far more persistent in later years than 3 decades ago in the context of what (Obstfeld and Peri in Econ Policy 13(26):205–259, 1998) call non-adjustment in unemployment rates. We then extend the currency union literature by adding an additional consideration: differences in regional cyclical sensitivity. Using measures of cyclicality and Obstfeld–Peri-type non-adjustment, we explore the characteristics of places that can get left behind when local labor markets respond differently to national shocks and discuss implications for policy.

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货币区、劳动力市场和地区周期敏感性

在欧洲货币联盟诞生之前的论文中，奥布斯特费尔德考虑了组成欧洲货币联盟的国家是否足够相似，能够在单一货币政策下生存下来——更重要的是，它们是否有能力适应单一货币和汇率政策下的不对称冲击。当时的惯例是以美国为基准，建立一个平稳运转的货币联盟。我们扩展了文献中的规范化事实，以说明在奥布斯特菲尔德和佩里在《经济政策》13(26):205 - 259,1998)所称的失业率非调整的背景下，当地劳动力市场结果的分层如何在后来的几年里比30年前更加持久。然后，我们通过增加一个额外的考虑因素来扩展货币联盟文献:区域周期性敏感性的差异。利用周期性和奥布斯特菲尔德-佩里型非调整指标，我们探讨了当当地劳动力市场对国家冲击做出不同反应时，可能落后的地方的特征，并讨论了对政策的影响。

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来源期刊

Imf Economic Review Multiple-

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

4.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IMF Economic Review is the official research journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is dedicated to publishing peer-reviewed, high-quality, context-related academic research on open-economy macroeconomics. It emphasizes rigorous analysis with an empirical orientation that is of interest to a broad audience, including academics and policymakers. Studies that borrow from, and interact with, other fields such as finance, international trade, political economy, labor, economic history or development are also welcome. The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to, or reported as, reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein. Comments “The IMF Economic Review has been uniquely successful in publishing papers that rigorously analyze real international macroeconomic problems and in a manner that has immediate policy relevance. This success is owed to a great extent to the high quality of the editorial board, which is able to identify papers that are both relevant for policy and are executed using state-of-the-art tools so as to make the analysis compelling.” - Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “IMF Economic Review is devoted to state-of-the-art research on the global economy. Given the Fund''s unique position on the front lines of surveillance and crisis management, anyone interested in international economic policy or in macroeconomics more generally will find this journal to be essential reading.” - Maurice Obstfeld, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF “There is great need for a rigorous academic publication that addresses the key global macro questions of our times. This is what the IMF Economic Review aims to be.” - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Editor of the IMF Economic Review “To navigate the global crisis, and to take the best policy decisions, will require mobilizing and extending the knowledge we have about open economy macro, from the implications of liquidity traps, to the dangers of large fiscal deficits, to macro-financial interactions, to the contours of a better international monetary and financial system. My hope and my expectation is that the IMF Economic Review will be central to the effort.” - Olivier J. Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics; former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department, IMF

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