{"title":"Development and validation of a nomogram for elderly patients with ulcerative melanoma.","authors":"Jie Yan, Haiyan Wang, Xiaoou Lu, Fengjuan Li","doi":"10.1097/cmr.0000000000000940","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The current state of survival prediction models for elderly patients with ulcerative melanoma (uCM) is limited. We sought to develop a nomogram model that can predict overall survival of geriatric patients with uCM. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database served as a source for patients diagnosed with uCM between 2004 and 2015. Statistical analyses were conducted to determine the significant prognostic elements affecting overall survival using multivariate and univariate Cox proportional risk regression models. Subsequently, an independent forecasting nomogram was developed on the basis of these identified predictors. The predictive model was then assessed and validated through the utilization of receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves as well as decision curves. The study included a total of 5019 participants. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed age, sex, marital status, primary site, tumor size, N stage, M stage, histological type, and surgery were independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed using the findings from both univariate and multivariate Cox analyses (P < 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curves, which vary over time, and the area under the curve (AUC) for the training and validation cohorts, demonstrated the nomogram's strong discriminatory ability. Additionally, the calibration curves indicated satisfactory agreement between the predicted values from the nomogram and the practical outcomes observed in both cohorts. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis curves displayed favorable positive net gains at all times, when the critical value is most likely to occur. In this study, age, sex, marital status, primary site, tumor size, N stage, M stage, histologic type and surgery were determined as independent predictors for elderly patients with uCM. Then, a predictive model with good discriminatory ability was constructed to predict 12-, 24-, and 36-month overall survival in geriatric patients with uCM, which facilitates patients' counseling and individualized medical decision.","PeriodicalId":18550,"journal":{"name":"Melanoma Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Melanoma Research","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/cmr.0000000000000940","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"DERMATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The current state of survival prediction models for elderly patients with ulcerative melanoma (uCM) is limited. We sought to develop a nomogram model that can predict overall survival of geriatric patients with uCM. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database served as a source for patients diagnosed with uCM between 2004 and 2015. Statistical analyses were conducted to determine the significant prognostic elements affecting overall survival using multivariate and univariate Cox proportional risk regression models. Subsequently, an independent forecasting nomogram was developed on the basis of these identified predictors. The predictive model was then assessed and validated through the utilization of receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves as well as decision curves. The study included a total of 5019 participants. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed age, sex, marital status, primary site, tumor size, N stage, M stage, histological type, and surgery were independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed using the findings from both univariate and multivariate Cox analyses (P < 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curves, which vary over time, and the area under the curve (AUC) for the training and validation cohorts, demonstrated the nomogram's strong discriminatory ability. Additionally, the calibration curves indicated satisfactory agreement between the predicted values from the nomogram and the practical outcomes observed in both cohorts. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis curves displayed favorable positive net gains at all times, when the critical value is most likely to occur. In this study, age, sex, marital status, primary site, tumor size, N stage, M stage, histologic type and surgery were determined as independent predictors for elderly patients with uCM. Then, a predictive model with good discriminatory ability was constructed to predict 12-, 24-, and 36-month overall survival in geriatric patients with uCM, which facilitates patients' counseling and individualized medical decision.
期刊介绍:
Melanoma Research is a well established international forum for the dissemination of new findings relating to melanoma. The aim of the Journal is to promote the level of informational exchange between those engaged in the field. Melanoma Research aims to encourage an informed and balanced view of experimental and clinical research and extend and stimulate communication and exchange of knowledge between investigators with differing areas of expertise. This will foster the development of translational research. The reporting of new clinical results and the effect and toxicity of new therapeutic agents and immunotherapy will be given emphasis by rapid publication of Short Communications. Thus, Melanoma Research seeks to present a coherent and up-to-date account of all aspects of investigations pertinent to melanoma. Consequently the scope of the Journal is broad, embracing the entire range of studies from fundamental and applied research in such subject areas as genetics, molecular biology, biochemistry, cell biology, photobiology, pathology, immunology, and advances in clinical oncology influencing the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of melanoma.