Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US

IF 3 3区医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Epidemics Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100736

Sang Woo Park , Kevin Messacar , Daniel C. Douek , Alicen B. Spaulding , C. Jessica E. Metcalf , Bryan T. Grenfell

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Abstract

Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.

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预测 COVID-19 非药物干预措施对美国 D68 型肠道病毒中短期动态的影响

最近爆发的肠道病毒 D68（EV-D68）感染及其与急性弛缓性脊髓炎（AFM）的因果关系继续构成严重的公共卫生问题。在 2020 年和 2021 年期间，EV-D68 和其他病原体的动态受到了针对 COVID-19 的非药物干预措施的显著干扰；这种干扰为探索这些地方性感染的动态提供了一个强大的自然实验。在本研究中，我们分析了最初通过新疫苗监测网络收集到的有关 EV-D68 感染的公开数据，以预测 COVID-19 干预后的短期和长期动态。虽然长期预测对我们关于新疫苗监测网期间潜在动态和接触率变化的假设很敏感，但 2023 年爆发大规模疫情的可能性似乎很低。要准确描述 EV-D68 的未来动态，需要全面的监测数据。尽管爆发了大规模的EV-D68疫情，但2022年的AFM病例发生率有限，这对下一次AFM疫情爆发的时间提出了进一步的问题。

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来源期刊

Epidemics INFECTIOUS DISEASES-

CiteScore

6.00

自引率

7.90%

发文量

审稿时长

140 days

期刊介绍： Epidemics publishes papers on infectious disease dynamics in the broadest sense. Its scope covers both within-host dynamics of infectious agents and dynamics at the population level, particularly the interaction between the two. Areas of emphasis include: spread, transmission, persistence, implications and population dynamics of infectious diseases; population and public health as well as policy aspects of control and prevention; dynamics at the individual level; interaction with the environment, ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, as well as population genetics of infectious agents.