Cuba’s Monetary Reform and Triple-Digit Inflation

IF 0.7 3区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES Latin American Research Review Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI:10.1017/lar.2023.59
Pavel Vidal, Luis R. Luis
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Abstract

Diverse elements have driven inflation in the Cuban economy in the early 2020s, but the big-bang devaluation of the peso in 2021—the key measure that unlocks monetary reform—stands out as the main determinant. Analysis indicates that the inflation rate ranged between 174% and 700%, well above the government’s 2021 consumer price index estimate (77%) and closer to the deflator of household consumption derived from the national income accounts (442%). Even with this larger inflation, there is room for a real depreciation of the peso in the short term. The relative rise of tradable goods prices and incomplete pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation create new incentives and enhance financial transparency in the short term. However, the absence of sufficient structural reforms, the complex macroeconomic scenario, and the persistence of high fiscal deficit, inflation, and devaluation of the peso in the informal market after 2021 put most of the potential benefits of the monetary reform at risk. Monetary instability is a deep, continuing problem.
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古巴的货币改革和三位数的通货膨胀率
2020 年代初,古巴经济的通货膨胀是由多种因素造成的,但 2021 年比索的大爆炸式贬值--启动货币改革的关键措施--是主要的决定因素。分析表明,通货膨胀率在 174% 到 700% 之间,远高于政府估计的 2021 年消费价格指数(77%),更接近国民收入账户中的家庭消费平减指数(442%)。即使通胀率如此之高,比索在短期内仍有实际贬值的空间。可交易商品价格的相对上涨以及汇率对通货膨胀的不完全传递在短期内创造了新的激励机制并提高了金融透明度。然而,由于缺乏足够的结构性改革、复杂的宏观经济形势以及 2021 年后高财政赤字、高通胀和比索在非正规市场贬值的持续存在,货币改革的大部分潜在效益都面临风险。货币不稳定是一个深刻而持续的问题。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
12.50%
发文量
137
审稿时长
9 weeks
期刊介绍: The Latin American Research Review is the premier interdisciplinary journal that publishes original research and surveys of current research on Latin America and the Caribbean. Interdisciplinary offerings reflect ahead-of-the-curve research, as well as new directions of knowledge creation in areas such as cultural studies, Latino issues and transnationalism, all of which increasingly intersect with Latin America in ways that are intellectually challenging and illuminating.
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