Multi-Hazard Extreme Scenario Quantification Using Intensity, Duration, and Return Period Characteristics

IF 3 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Climate Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI:10.3390/cli11120242
A. Sfetsos, N. Politi, D. Vlachogiannis
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Abstract

Many modern frameworks for community resilience and emergency management in the face of extreme hydrometeorological and climate events rely on scenario building. These scenarios typically cover multiple hazards and assess the likelihood of their occurrence. They are quantified by their main characteristics, including likelihood of occurrence, intensity, duration, and spatial extent. However, most studies in the literature focus only on the first two characteristics, neglecting to incorporate the internal hazard dynamics and their persistence over time. In this study, we propose a multidimensional approach to construct extreme event scenarios for multiple hazards, such as heat waves, cold spells, extreme precipitation and snowfall, and wind speed. We consider the intensity, duration, and return period (IDRP) triptych for a specific location. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by developing pertinent scenarios for eight locations in Greece with diverse geographical characteristics and dominant extreme hazards. We also address how climate change impacts the scenario characteristics.
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利用强度、持续时间和重现期特征量化多种极端灾害情景
面对极端水文气象和气候事件,许多现代社区复原力和应急管理框架都依赖于情景构建。这些情景通常涵盖多种灾害,并评估其发生的可能性。它们根据其主要特征进行量化,包括发生的可能性、强度、持续时间和空间范围。然而,文献中的大多数研究只关注前两个特征,而忽略了内部危害动态及其随时间的持续性。在本研究中,我们提出了一种多维方法来构建多种灾害的极端事件情景,如热浪、寒流、极端降水和降雪以及风速。我们考虑了特定地点的强度、持续时间和重现期(IDRP)三要素。我们为希腊八个具有不同地理特征和主要极端灾害的地点制定了相关情景,从而证明了这种方法的有效性。我们还讨论了气候变化对情景特征的影响。
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来源期刊
Climate
Climate Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
5.40%
发文量
172
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate is an independent, international and multi-disciplinary open access journal focusing on climate processes of the earth, covering all scales and involving modelling and observation methods. The scope of Climate includes: Global climate Regional climate Urban climate Multiscale climate Polar climate Tropical climate Climate downscaling Climate process and sensitivity studies Climate dynamics Climate variability (Interseasonal, interannual to decadal) Feedbacks between local, regional, and global climate change Anthropogenic climate change Climate and monsoon Cloud and precipitation predictions Past, present, and projected climate change Hydroclimate.
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