How Urgent is Urgent?—Statistical Analysis of Procedural Urgency in Provisional Measures at the International Court of Justice

Abstract

Urgency is a key element of provisional measures. In its substantive meaning, it is a conditio sine qua non for their grant. In the procedural sense, it signifies a swift way of processing the request by the Court. The manner in which the International Court of Justice manages those proceedings remains insufficiently explored. If the Court were to delay them, irreparable prejudice might have already occurred. To fill the gap in the literature, this article aims at elaborating on the management of interim relief proceedings. To this end, it employs methods of statistical analysis to assess the Court’s past practice. It argues that those proceedings lack predictability, based on an analysis of parameters such as minimum, maximum, mean, standard deviation, Pearson correlation coefficient, normal distribution (Gaussian), skewness coefficient, coefficient of variation and kurtosis.