Rising energy demand in emerging countries and the effect of exchange rates: An application of the QARDL model

Abstract

Numerous empirical researches have investigated the association between exchange rates and energy consumption. However, existing studies often overlook the innovative aspect of exploring implications across various stages of energy demand, which sets our study apart, especially amidst significant fluctuations. Addressing this gap, our study uniquely examines both short- and long-term influences of exchange rates on energy demand in the emerging seven (E7) economies: Brazil, Mexico, Russia, India, Turkey, China, and Indonesia. We shed light on this innovative aspect of our research by utilizing quarterly data from Q1 1987 to Q4 2020 and employing the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) model. Notably, our approach demonstrates an innovative methodology. While standard Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear ARDL approaches identify energy demand and exchange rate cointegration solely in India, the QARDL method reveals a deeper pattern that showcases the innovative nature of our investigation. Recognizing diverse energy demand levels emphasizes the innovative need to tailor strategies. Neglecting these disparities could precipitate undesired consequences, amplifying the relevance of our study's innovative approach to shaping effective policies.